Updated Terminal E Analysis

Well as I noted elsewhere this is like a giant jigsaw puzzle, but i believe i have all the combinations. As schedules change all the time, I picked a high season date and went with it, it was the week of 7/10 to 7/17, I also expanded the file to include the whole 24 hours rather than the peak afternoon period.

So... how is it looking. Well for those of us wanting more international expansion, there isn't really a whole lot of room to do anything in those peak periods still. The fact that E10-E12 are back on line 100% this year is awesome, but if flights get delayed (imagine that), there is still going to be a gate crush at certain times.

Morning until Noon

As we know the morning hours for E in BOS are rather quiet overall. Day starts with the LY early morning arrival, which then goes to hard stand parking and the departures of the BA (Daily) and PD RON aircraft (5 days a week), also before 9 are the daily Santa Domingo and Santiago Caribbean B6 arrivals along with the EK early flight. Copa's flight to PTY leaves around 9.30 and the rest of the morning is essentially all down to PD and their YTZ flights at various times until noon. B6 and EK aircraft get towed to C for later flights.

Noon to 3pm

While busy this time frame is not totally tapped out First Euro flight of the day arrival goes to FI with their noon arrival that leaves around 2.30pm. JL's NRT flight comes on stand after it's RON for a 13.30 departure and while that's happening the US carrier wave arrives. With DL starting DUB this year, there will now be 4 DL flights and 1 AA flight arriving inside 20 minutes of each other by 12.35pm. TAP joins the fray at 13.20, BA at 13.30 and with PD's YTZ flights in that period we are looking at up to 8 gates busy through to 13.30 or so.

There's then a gap of about 45 minutes, before the next wave begins in this section. first up is the afternoon EK arrival at 14.15, followed in quick succession by another PD (6 days a week), HU then QR and IB are scheduled to arrive within 5 minutes of each other by 14.40.

3pm to 6pm

Now the ramp up really begins, first up at 15.05 is LH's first FRA flight arrival, quickly followed by LX's ZRH flight, SK from CPH, HU from PEK and MT's 2x weekly from MAN. At 15.15 in theory 11 gates should be in use. Another gap in arrivals ensues until DL's 2nd AMS flight at 16.40 which has to get off stand pretty quickly, because when the 5 O'Clock hour rolls around, things start to get super busy. However HU's PEK flight leaves at 16.35 departs leaving PD's 16.48 flight 6 days a week next, followed by VS's new MAN flight 2x weekly, which shares with B6's Punta Cana arrival and UX's new 17.20 arrival from MAD, S4's 6 weekly 17.05 arrival is then quickly supplemented by AB at 17.10, AF's first flight arrival at 17.15, WOW's daily at 17.25 and rounding off the 5pm hour are 2 B6 arrivals from Cancun (Sat only) and Port Au-Prince (4 weekly). If the 13.30 BA arrival stays on stand, which i am not sure that it does, the 17.15 timeframe has all 12 gates in use. On the flip side. LX leaves at 17.00, LH at 17.05, SK leaves at 17.30, MT at 17.35 and PD's late afternoon flight to YTZ.

6pm to 9pm

The 6pm section sees 6 arrivals, PD, JL's RON aircraft along with TK before 18.15, FI's 2nd flight and LH (MUC) arrive at 18.35 with AZ 5 minutes later, in reverse AB leaves at 18.55, this hour is where gate usage starts to be maxed out, especially after 18.30.

The 7pm sees a change over as earlier arrivals now depart VS to MAN, AF to CDG and JL's RON leaves it's gate to hold in North Cargo. I haven't confirmed this, but given the timings it looks like TK would have to go to North Cargo too at this point as the next wave of arrivals hits. S4's flights from LIS/TER/PDL (dependent on the day) arrive, along with DY's daily from OSL/CPH or LGW (this also currently explains some of why DY cannot expand their very successful LGW flight), VS from LHR, FI's 3rd flight from KEF, BA's flight from LHR and CM from PTY all requiring spots throw in a PD arrival and you have all 12 gates maxed out during this period.

Moving to 8pm and the maxed out trait continues CM's 738 goes to North Cargo for it's RON, LH leaves for MUC but is replaced by a PD and AF's 2nd flight arrives at 20.35, BA's second evening departure comes on stand.

The 9pm hours starts the departure bank, BA has 2 at 21.20 and 21.35, S4 at 21.05, DY at 21.20, FI at 21.30, VS - LHR at 21.40 and LX at 21.45

QR's A350 comes back on stand during this hour for it's departure along with S4's 2nd flight, BA's overnight RON arrives at 21.40 along with Aeromexico's arrival at 21.45 from MEX and the new Avianca arrival will squeak in to this slot with a timing of 21.57 arrival.

Late Night

The evening rush starts to wind down but there is still plenty of activity now late into the night. Only 2 arrivals in this hour, which is CX's HKG flight at 22.10 and PD's RON flight from YTZ.

E starts to clear out now. LH's 2nd FRA flight leaves at 22.15, AF at 22.20, AZ at 22.45, S4 at 22.30, QR at 22.10.

The night closes out with AM at 23.30, TK at 23.35, UX at 23.40, AV at 00.57 and last but by no means least CX leaves back for HKG at 01.45, leaving the BA and PD RON's on stand until the morning.

Comments

Well it's pretty clear that BOS is working close to capacity, but if you look closely, MASSPORT if they really wanted to push it, there are a few gaps, that could lend themselves to some service. For example in the 3pm slot, there's MT with their 2x weekly from MAN and there are a couple of slots for arrivals prior to 4pm (to allow an hour to disembark etc), but realistically the plane would need to be on the ground for 6 hours, because slots for departures don't become free to be at the gate before 9pm. That said, it is possible.

The other issue out there is what happens to EK,TP and EI currently sitting in C, EK will not be an issue because of their timings, morning flight leaves before noon, before any rush, and the night flight not until 11pm, which given they park somewhere anyway will not be a burden and can arrive on the stand at 9, plenty of time for such a departure.

TP would struggle for a 9pm departure for a return to E, as there are really no stands available for them before 9, they could move their departure to 10pm to make it work, but that's their only option.

to move EI back from C would really make things tricky, but looking at the options it might be able to be done with a few hoops for the first DUB and SNN flights. The 21.20 flight would struggle to find a slot to leave from.

With no more new gates coming until 2021 at the earliest, looks like growth will stall unless Massport can continue to work around the edges, maybe use some hard stands and offer slightly less than optimal timings or move some timings to fill the gaps because at the moment there is very little slack available