July 2017 T-100 Europe

Europe these days is definitely a mixture of conflicting success rates for the various airlines and routes they cover. From our information, we never really know about yields and ultimately profitability of the route, nor what percentage of folks were in the expensive J and F seats, thus helping to make the routes viable, nor do we know the percentage of O&D and Connections to see if that is having an impact. Plus we don't know whether the changing state of the UK, not through Brexit itself because that hasn't officially happened yet, but more because of the swing in Exchange rates to a much more US friendly number, but much less friendly UK one.

So that's what we don't know, what DO we know. Well as ever due to the sheer volume of routes, there's a LOT of information available and i'm largely going to focus on the 12 month rolling except for the newest of routes.

DL - AMS/LHR and CDG - DL themselves see International as viable from BOS, given their intent to start DUB later this year. however casting the mind back to July 16 tells a mixed bag of a story

AMS is arguably it's most successful route, , posting an 81% load factor, although that is slightly down from 84%, the previous year. capacity is up, as is passengers, but only by 1.3%

CDG - 2nd best route, posting a 78% load factor, however the story here is the 80% increase in capacity and a 62% increase in passengers, with AA basically being a wash for the drop of 4.4% for AF, DL has stormed through with an extra 40K passengers flying with them, even if you assume AF/DL are cooperating, it's not just a switch, it's an expansion.

LHR- ahhh, the basket case that is DL BOS-LHR, DL is primarily surviving with it's up front loads, because otherwise at a 59% overall load for the 12 months, most would say, kill it, lost nearly 9K passengers and a 9% drop, although VS through it's JV picked up 7K and 4.7%, but even it's loads lost around 4% over.

BA frankly has been hammered this year, a drop of 5.6%, while still posting a respectable year round load fact of 80%, the direction is definitely down, definitely something to keep an eye on.

LH too has been suffering, while MUC has largely been flat. FRA also got hit with a 4.4% drop and a 6% load reduction for the year to 73%. Some have said this is due to direct competition (EW and AB on CGN and DUS, but also indirect competition for connections from EK, QR and a lesser extent TK)

of the newcomers for 2016, also an interesting mix.

EW - as we know this got suspended, 55% loads, but the story here is the outbound loads being poor due to not selling tickets originating from the US. July for example was 36% outbound, but 71% inbound, be interesting to see if they come back at any point. although i have my doubts.

AB - we all know these guys are in a mess financially, so i will be curious to see what the plan is here. 76% load for July is not spectacular, however the true fact of the matter is a 91% inbound load rate DUS-BOS, offset by a 61% in the other direction. Clearly not enough folks know about this flight yet. Plenty of potential here, assume they survive as a business.

TP - well as a number expected. TP have come in and done very well and are currently sitting at 87% loads, which are pretty evenly matched inbound and outbound, I believe they have captured some share from S4, but while S4 have lost ground in going direct to LIS, their options to TER and PDL are holding together increasing capacity and passengers too. seem to be co-habitating well right now.

FI & WW apart from bringing a lot of fish (especially in the case of FI) still are doing great with their 1 stop KEF model. loads on FI are at 85% year round with WW close by, albeit with slightly bigger aircraft, but a 2:1 flight count and capacity count for FI. Not many seats to be found KEF-BOS in July at all, with both airlines in the low/Mid 90% range for loads.

DY, well what hasn't been said about DY and BOS at this point, plans for PVD (we think) going forward, but their trio of flights are definitely getting butts on seats (yields as noted are a very different thing), CPH with it's limited service and daily low config 737 competition from SK is running at 85%, meaning the operation if it continues is fairly rightsized for the moment.

OSL is also running well and if they could figure out the operation side, could well be ready for at least an increase of 1x weekly, if not 2., very few seats available in July inbound, that's for sure with a 95% load factor.

LGW - IF this doesn't go daily at somepoint, i think we will all be shocked, while the winter months will be a bit more challenging, nearly 90% load factor combined since the route began and if you found a seat from LGW in July on this flight, well done as they were few and far between with a 97% load factor.

MT - 2017 will be a watershed for this route, with VS weighing in and MT upping frequency, as for 2016 and the lone wolf 84% loads on a 320 seat high density aircraft is not to be sniffed at and again trying to find a seat in July inbound looked tough with a 92% load factor for the month.

Elsewhere, the rationale for DL starting DUB in 17 is very evident, almost every seat sold by EI on the DUB-BOS sector and no capacity for expansion, which is a shame, however fanciful or bizarre it sounds if IAG/EI could figure out a seasonal 380 option, it would work on this route for sure, they are shipping almost as many as EK on a daily basis

pretty much everyone else gained additional passengers but a few lost load %'s along the way. LX was an example, dropping by 5%, but they also increased capacity by 25% with the 2nd daily kicking in as a seasonal, drove up 22K passengers and a 76% load for the year. July demonstrates this further, double the flights, double the capacity and an 84% increase in passengers, , dropped the load factor by 8%, but LX have to be happy with those numbers.

#Europe #DL #BA #VS #DY #Iceland #EW #KEF #OSL #LGW #LHR #TP #FI #WW