July 2017 T-100 - Central America

Central America is a region that is becoming solid for it's 2 main protagonists AM and CM and a market that is running at least over 200K rolling 12 months.

AM - while loads have dropped slightly, it's because of the switch from 124 seats on the 737 to 159 on their 738's primarily. Rolling 12 months sees a drop in loads from 80% to 75%, but given they have passed 56,000 passengers during the period. Focusing on July a 28.5% increase in capacity (the switch in aircraft type), got a 21% increase in passengers, dropping their numbers from 85% to 80%, but 1,200 more carried.

CM - appear to have rightsized their operation. a 5% reduction in flights (rolling 12 months) but also a switch from 737 to 738 and a resulting 1% increase in capacity has actually driven a 4.5% increase in passengers and loads moving from 74% to 76% overall. July had a 14.5% increase in capacity due to the type difference but a 21% increase in passengers, moving their loads up to 90% from 85%. The shoulder and winter season will be interesting for them, because they do suffer significant drop offs on loads in September and October, but hopefully their current strategy will pay dividends and push their loads up and out of the 60% into the low 70%'s (probably the best we can expect for that season).

CUN - due to the seasonal nature of this route, it's hard to judge too much about what happens in July specifically, all 3 carriers (B6/DL and AA) ran 1 weekly and all having loads in the high 80%'s, the winner in a close race was B6, that increased its loads from 86-88%

On a rolling 12 month basis however the picture becomes a little clearer. B6 being the main protagonist rules the roost with an approx 71-72% market share, although that dipped in the favor of DL as they added a bunch more capacity onto the route

Overall market is 213K at this point and a lot of that is driven by the capacity additions noted above, frankly given the relatively high numbers, i can't see this going much above 230K without additional service being added

#CM #PTY #CentralAmerica #AM #Mex #B6 #Jetblue #CUN #DL #AAUS